U.S. International Undergraduate Enrollment Trends from India and Other Emerging Markets
Nick Clark, Editor, World Education News & Reviews
Indian students in the United States have historically had a strong preference for graduate-level study, with masters and doctoral students typically outnumbering their undergraduate peers by roughly five to one. In 2009/10, undergraduate students constituted just 14.5 percent of the total U.S.-based Indian student population, which was essentially the low for the last decade. However, undergraduate enrollments are not in decline. They have in fact been growing at a reasonable clip over the last three years.
| Indian Tertiary Enrollments at U.S. Institutions of Education by Academic Level 2000-2010 | |||||||||
| Year | Under- grad |
% | Grad | % | Non-Deg | % | OPT | % | Total |
| 09/10 | 15,192 | 14.5% | 68,290 | 65.1% | 1,758 | 1.7% | 19,657 | 18.7% | 104,897 |
| 08/09 | 15,600 | 15.1% | 71,019 | 68.8% | 1,755 | 1.7% | 14,886 | 14.4% | 103,260 |
| 07/08 | 13,639 | 14.4% | 68,069 | 72.0% | 2,009 | 2.1% | 10,846 | 11.5% | 94,563 |
| 06/07 | 12,581 | 15.0% | 59,570 | 71.1% | 979 | 1.2% | 10,703 | 12.8% | 83,833 |
| 05/06 | 12,726 | 16.6% | 56,397 | 73.7% | 7,380* | 9.6% | 76,503 | ||
| 04/05 | 16,443 | 20.4% | 57,976 | 72.1% | 6,047* | 7.5% | 80,466 | ||
| 03/04 | 13,531 | 17.0% | 63,013 | 79.0% | 3,192* | 4.0% | 79,736 | ||
| 02/03 | 13,813 | 18.5% | 58,322 | 78.2% | 2,467* | 3.3% | 74,603 | ||
| 01/02 | 14,321 | 21.4% | 49,730 | 74.4% | 2,785* | 4.2% | 66,836 | ||
| 00/01 | 12,259 | 22.4% | 39,797 | 72.8% | 2,608* | 4.8% | 54,664 | ||
* For years 2000/01 – 2005/06, non-degree was classified as ‘other’ and did not discriminate between OPT and non-degree.
Source: IIE Open Doors
The 2009/10 data are somewhat distorted by the 32 percent increase in the number of Indians undertaking Optional Practical Training (OPT). The large increase in OPT students is a direct result of the 2008 U.S. policy initiative extending the OPT period from 12 months to 29 months for students with degrees in science, technology, engineering or mathematics.
Given that 57 percent of all Indian students are enrolled in engineering and computer science programs (NSF), it appears that many graduates took advantage of the Department of Homeland Security ruling, perhaps looking to ride out the recessionary period in hopes of getting on the skilled H1-B visa track. These OPT students are counted in the IIE data as they remain on F-1 student visa status.
If one controls for graduated students on OPT work placements and students in non-degree programs, then undergraduates accounted for just over 18 percent of the total number of students enrolled in degree programs, which is roughly average for the last ten years.
| Indian Undergraduate Students as a Percentage of all Indian Degree-Level Students | ||
| Year | Total Undergraduate & Graduate Enrollments | % Undergraduate Enrollments |
| 09/10 | 83,482 | 18.2% |
| 08/09 | 86,619 | 18% |
| 07/08 | 81,708 | 16.7% |
| 06/07 | 72,151 | 17.4% |
| 05/06 | 69,123 | 18.4% |
| 04/05 | 74,419 | 22.1% |
| 03/04 | 76,544 | 17.7% |
| 02/03 | 72,135 | 19.1% |
| 01/02 | 64,051 | 22.4% |
| 00/01 | 52,056 | 23.6% |
Source: IIE Open Doors
In absolute terms, there were 15,192 Indian undergraduate students at U.S. colleges and universities in 2009/10, almost 400 less than the year before and well over 1,000 less than the record 16,443 Indian undergraduates on campus in 2004/05, but over 20 percent more than in the 2006/07 academic year when there were just 12,581 Indian students at the undergraduate level. At the graduate level over the same period growth was slightly lower at approximately 14 percent.
While there are no obvious indications that Indian freshmen are going to flood into U.S. undergraduate programs in the kinds of numbers that have been seen from China in the last three years, there is suggestion that a trend might be emerging.
| Chinese Tertiary Enrollments at U.S. Institutions of Education by Academic Level 2000-2010 | |||||||||
| Year | Undergrad | % | Grad | % | Non-Deg | % | OPT | % | Total |
| 09/10 | 39,921 | 31.3% | 66,453 | 52.1% | 10,251 | 8.0% | 11,003 | 8.6% | 127,628 |
| 08/09 | 26,275 | 26.7% | 57,452 | 58.5% | 6,296 | 6.4% | 8,212 | 8.4% | 98,235 |
| 07/08 | 16,450 | 20.3% | 53,047 | 65.4% | 3,912 | 4.8% | 7,718 | 9.5% | 81,127 |
| 06/07 | 9,988 | 14.7% | 47,968 | 70.8% | 2,596 | 3.8% | 7,171 | 10.6% | 67,723 |
| 05/06 | 9,304 | 14.9% | 47,617 | 76.1% | 5,661* | 9.0% | 62,582 | ||
| 04/05 | 8,299 | 13.3% | 49,293 | 78.8% | 4,931* | 7.9% | 62,523 | ||
| 03/04 | 8,034 | 13.0% | 50,796 | 82.2% | 2,935* | 4.8% | 61,765 | ||
| 02/03 | 9,484 | 14.6% | 52,235 | 80.7% | 3,038* | 4.7% | 64,757 | ||
| 01/02 | 8,659 | 13.7% | 50,969 | 80.6% | 3,583* | 5.7% | 63,211 | ||
| 00/01 | 8,252 | 13.8% | 48,029 | 80.1% | 3,658* | 6.1% | 59,939 | ||
* For years 2000/01 – 2005/06, non-degree was classified as ‘other’ and did not discriminate between OPT and non-degree.
Source: IIE Open Doors
| Chinese Undergraduate Students as a Percentage of all Chinese Degree-Level Students | ||
| Year | Total Undergraduate & Graduate Enrollments | % Undergraduate Enrollments |
| 09/10 | 106,374 | 37.5% |
| 08/09 | 83,727 | 31.4% |
| 07/08 | 69,497 | 23.7% |
| 06/07 | 57,956 | 16.1% |
| 05/06 | 56,921 | 16.3% |
| 04/05 | 57,592 | 14.4% |
| 03/04 | 58,830 | 13.7% |
| 02/03 | 61,719 | 15.4% |
| 01/02 | 59,628 | 14.5% |
| 00/01 | 56,281 | 14.7% |
Source: IIE Open Doors
In the U.S. Government’s Fiscal Year 2011 (October to September) the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi is reporting an 18 percent increase in applications for student visas versus the year prior, for a total increase from 39,958 applications in 2010 to 46,982 in 2011. We don’t yet know how many of those students ended up on American campuses this fall, and application numbers are likely to exceed actual enrollments, but an 18 percent increase in visa applications is certainly significant, especially after a couple of years during which enrollments have flat-lined or, at the graduate level, fallen.
It is also unclear from the embassy numbers if growth will be stronger at any particular academic level, although there is data suggesting that graduate enrollments are likely to rebound this year. According to Council of Graduate School research, applicant growth at the graduate level among Indian students resumed with an 8 percent increase in 2010/11 after three years of flat or declining applicant numbers. Final enrollment data is yet to be released, but offers of admission have tracked a similar growth trajectory.
Enrollment numbers for the 2010/11 year will be released by the Institute of International Education on November 15 and, as noted above, it seems likely that there will be resumed growth from India; however, whether that growth continues to strengthen at the undergraduate level will be an interesting trend to watch.
Many India education observers believe that If India’s economy continues to expand as those around it contract, as has been the case through the current global recession, then more students and their families are likely to see value in overseas degrees, especially if the Indian government and tertiary sector continue to struggle in meeting demand for places at top-ranked domestic schools.
For students from newly affluent families who fail to find a place at one of India’s top-tier universities and technical institutes, where in some instances as few as 1 in 60 test takers are admitted each year, overseas study is likely to become an increasingly attractive option, especially if foreign colleges expand their recruitment efforts among Indian undergraduates.
Other Strong and Emerging Markets
In the short-term, however, the two biggest markets for international undergraduate admissions in the United States will continue to be China and South Korea. Japanese enrollments look set to continue the downward trajectory they have been on for the second half of the last decade, while enrollments from Saudi Arabia and Brazil look set for continued growth thanks to generous government scholarship programs. In the Brazilian context, however, the emphasis of the scholarship initiative appears to be at the graduate level and specifically in the STEM fields.
| South Korean Tertiary Enrollments at U.S. Institutions of Education by Academic Level 2000-2010 | |||||||||
| Year | Undergrad | % | Grad | % | Non-Deg | % | OPT | % | Total |
| 09/10 | 36,234 | 50.2% | 23,386 | 32.4% | 6,671 | 9.2% | 5,862 | 8.1% | 72,153 |
| 08/09 | 37,078 | 49.4% | 25,463 | 33.9% | 7,390 | 9.8% | 5,134 | 6.8% | 75,065 |
| 07/08 | 32,934 | 47.6% | 24,697 | 35.7% | 6,528 | 9.4% | 4,965 | 7.2% | 69,124 |
| 06/07 | 28,228 | 45.2% | 23,950 | 38.4% | 5,717 | 9.2% | 4,497 | 7.2% | 62,392 |
| 05/06 | 26,946 | 45.7% | 24,414 | 41.4% | 7,662 | 13.0% | 59,022 | ||
| 04/05 | 23,432 | 43.9% | 24,122 | 45.2% | 5,804 | 10.9% | 53,358 | ||
| 03/04 | 22,727 | 43.3% | 24,757 | 47.2% | 5,000 | 9.5% | 52,484 | ||
| 02/03 | 21,774 | 42.3% | 24,616 | 47.8% | 5,128 | 10.0% | 51,519 | ||
| 01/02 | 19,786 | 40.3% | 23,676 | 48.3% | 5,585 | 11.4% | 49,046 | ||
| 00/01 | 18,781 | 41.1% | 21,568 | 47.2% | 5,336 | 11.7% | 45,685 | ||
* For years 2000/01 – 2005/06, non-degree was classified as ‘other’ and did not discriminate between OPT and non-degree.
Source: IIE Open Doors
| Japanese Tertiary Enrollments at U.S. Institutions of Education by Academic Level 2000-2010 | |||||||||
| Year | Undergrad | % | Grad | % | Non-Deg | % | OPT | % | Total |
| 09/10 | 13,063 | 52.6% | 5,390 | 21.7% | 4,321 | 17.4% | 2,068 | 8.3% | 24,842 |
| 08/09 | 16,770 | 57.3% | 6,287 | 21.5% | 3,970 | 13.6% | 2,237 | 7.6% | 29,264 |
| 07/08 | 20,831 | 61.3% | 6,878 | 20.2% | 3,806 | 11.2% | 2,459 | 7.2% | 33,974 |
| 06/07 | 22,247 | 63.1% | 7,008 | 19.9% | 3,677 | 10.4% | 2,350 | 6.7% | 35,282 |
| 05/06 | 24,759 | 64.0% | 8,025 | 20.7% | 5,928 | 15.3% | 38,712 | ||
| 04/05 | 28,708 | 68.0% | 8,497 | 20.1% | 5,010 | 11.9% | 42,215 | ||
| 03/04 | 27,925 | 68.4% | 8,681 | 21.3% | 4,229 | 10.4% | 40,835 | ||
| 02/03 | 31,489 | 68.5% | 9,516 | 20.7% | 4,955 | 10.8% | 45,960 | ||
| 01/02 | 31,588 | 67.5% | 9,691 | 20.7% | 5,531 | 11.8% | 46,810 | ||
| 00/01 | 32,136 | 69.1% | 8,560 | 18.4% | 5,800 | 12.5% | 46,497 | ||
* For years 2000/01 – 2005/06, non-degree was classified as ‘other’ and did not discriminate between OPT and non-degree.
Source: IIE Open Doors
Other countries that U.S. admissions professionals are likely to be seeing increased undergraduate applicant numbers from include Vietnam, where the economy is booming and the education system is currently failing to meet demand; and Indonesia, where recent high-level talks have focused specifically on boosting academic exchange between the two countries. A goal of doubling Indonesian enrollments at U.S. institutions of higher education was established last year by the U.S. Department of State, and backed by a presidential commitment to spend $165-million over the next five years on educational exchanges and university partnerships.